NFL Week 3 Nuggets
Enjoy this post from our Director of Content & Media: Casey Halpern
*All odds, records, and any additional information provided is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only and is not intended as advice on gambling, specific game selection, specific wager selection or decision-making.
Key acronyms mentioned below:
ATS = Against the spread
SU = Straight up
EPA = Expected Points added
Please find Week 3 matchup nuggets below
Unders are 22-10 so far this season
Underdogs are 18-13-1 ATS
PIT (+5) @ CLE
- Mike Tomlin is 46-23-2 ATS as an underdog in the regular season
- Mike Tomlin is 24-5-1 SU against the Browns
- Kevin Stefanski is 1-11 ATS against divisional opponents
- Unders are 6-1 in primetime games this season
NO (-3) @ CAR
- CAR hasn’t covered since Week 10 of last season. Have lost nine straight
- NO is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games on the road in Carolina
- Baker Mayfield is 5-11 ATS in his last 16 starts
HOU (+2.5) @ CHI
- Lovie Smith revenge game! Smith was the Bears coach from 2004-2012. This will be the third time he coaches against his former team. 0-2 ATS & SU.
- HOU has covered five of their last six games dating back to last season
KC (+6.5) @ IND
- Mahomes in September: 9-6 ATS, 13-2 SU. 48 TD, 3 INT
- Per @ClevTA, since 1992, Teams off of a shutout loss and are 3+ point underdogs in non-division games have gone 51-14-3 (78%) ATS the following week
- Per @ClevTA, since 2015, teams off a shutout loss are now 25-9 ATS the following week.
- Matt Ryan makes his home debut as a Colt
- KC is 20-12 ATS and 25-7 straight up in the month of September under Andy Reid
BUF (-5.5) @ MIA
- BUF has outscored its opponents 72-17 this season (62-7 in last six quarters)
- The Bills last 20 regular season wins have all come by double-digits, which ties the longest streak in NFL history.
- Tua is 0-3 straight up against the Bills in his career. MIA has lost by an average 26.7 points
- Tua is 8-3-1 ATS as an underdog
- BUF went on the road and shutout MIA 35-0 last season
DET (+5.5) @ MIN
- DET is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games. Jared Goff during that span: 17 TD, 3 INT (missed 3 games)
- DET first road game of the season
- Kirk Cousins coming off one of his worst performances: 4.8 Y/A, 3 INT
- Kirk Cousins has lost 12 career games by 17+ points. In the next game, his teams are 8-4 ATS.
BAL (-3) @ NE
- NE home opener
- Since Tom Brady left, the under is 20-14-1 in Pats games
- Bill Belichick vs. John Harbaugh in regular season: 5-1-1 ATS
- Bill Belichick vs. John Harbaugh in postseason: 0-4 ATS
- Since 2003, Bill Belichick is 30-16-2 ATS as an underdog in the regular season
CIN (-4.5) @ NYJ
- NYJ beat CIN outright last year as 11.5-point home dogs. The Mike White Game.
- Joe Burrow has been sacked 13 times through two games this season. Per PFF, Joe Burrow has been pressured on 31% of his dropbacks this season. (34.3% last season)
- With a win, NYJ would finish above .500 in the month of September for the first time since 2015
- Joe Flacco is 3-7 ATS & SU in his last 10 games vis. CIN
LV (-2.5) @ TEN
- Mike Vrabel is 8-4 ATS as a home dog
- TEN has been outscored 62-14 in their last six quarters of play
- Derrick Henry this season: 34 rushes, 107 yards, 1 TD
- Josh McDaniels is now 2-8 ATS in his last 10 games as head coach
- TEN has the worst pass blocking unit in the NFL, per PFF. Maxx Crosby & Chandler Jones could be in for a big day…Jones had five sacks vs. TEN last season.
PHI (-6.5) @ WAS
- Carson Wentz revenge game! Wentz faces the team that drafted him for the first time since he was traded from PHI.
- WAS is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games
- WAS has covered 4 of their last 5 games at home
- PHI ground game is averaging 190 yards per game so far this season. Washington allowed 191 rushing yards to DET just last week.
JAX (+7) @ LAC
- Justin Herbert is day-to-day after fracturing his rib cartilage last Thursday night vs. KC
- Trevor Lawrence on the road: 2-7 ATS, 0-9 SU. 6 TD, 12 INT.
- The under is 2-0 in LAC games this season
LAR (-3.5) @ ARI
- Sean McVay vs. ARI: 9-1-1 ATS, 10-1 SU
- Dating back to last season, ARI is 2-7 ATS at home
- Since the start of 2022, LAR is just 2-6 ATS
ATL (+1.5) @ SEA
- Geno Smith is 3-0 ATS in home Seahawk starts
- SEA failed to score an offensive touchdown last week
- Kyle Pitts this season: 10 targets, 4 rec, 38 yards
- ATL is 0-2 SU this season but 2-0 ATS. Loses have come by a combined five points
GB (+2.5) @ TB
- This is just the 5th matchup between Brady & Rodgers (incl. postseason). Brady is 3-1 ATS & SU, and has won 3 straight.
- Tampa Bay home opener
- Todd Bowles first home game as head coach of the Bucs.
- GB hasn’t covered in four straight road games. Lost three of those outright
- TB will be without their best weapon, Mike Evans, who is suspended
SF (-1) @ DEN
- SF has covered six of their last seven games
- Kyle Shanahan with Jimmy Garoppolo: 31-14 SU. Without Jimmy G: 9-29 SU
- Russell Wilson is 2-9 ATS in his last 11 primetime games and has lost five straight outright
- Russell Wilson vs. SF: 14-5-1 ATS, 16-4 SU
- Unders are 6-1 in primetime games this season
DAL (+2.5) @ NYG
- NYG is 2-0 for their first time since 2016
- Daniel Jones 1-2 ATS in home primetime starts
- Cooper Rush makes his 3rd NFL start. 2-0 ATS & SU.
- Daniel Jones vs. divisional opponents; 9-4 ATS.16 TD, 7 INT
- Unders are 6-1 in primetime games this season