NFL Week 1 Nuggets

Enjoy this post from our Director of Content & Media: Casey Halpern

*All odds, records, and any additional information provided is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only and is not intended as advice on gambling, specific game selection, specific wager selection or decision-making.

Key acronyms mentioned below:

ATS = Against the spread

SU =  Straight up

EPA = Expected Points added

Enjoy some random NFL nuggets ahead of Week 1 of the 2022 NFL season. Let's get into it...

• Divisional home dogs are 22-13 ATS in Week 1 since '05
• Week 1 home dogs getting more than a TD are 6-2 ATS since '05
• Teams with new head coaches have struggled in Week 1…Over the last four seasons those teams are 7-16 against the spread & 3-19-1 straight up. This applies to the following 10 teams: JAX, MIA, HOU, NO, TB, CHI, LV, NYG, MIN, DEN
• There are currently 10 home underdogs in Week 1.

Please find Week 1 matchup nuggets below

BUF (-2.5) @ LAR

• Reigning world champs are 19-3 straight up and 13-7-2 against the spread in their first game as defending champs this millennium
• The Rams are a perfect 5-0 ATS & SU in Week 1 games under Sean McVay
• Rams margin of victory in Week 1 under McVay: 16.2 points
• The under is 14-4 in Rams home games at SoFi Stadium (incl. postseason)
• Sean McVay is 8-3 against the spread as an underdog
• But just 1-3 ATS as a home dog…

PIT (+6.5) @ CIN

• Mitch Trubisky’s first NFL start since 01/03/2021
• Teams coming off a loss in the BIG game (SB) are 4-18 against the spread and 9-13 straight up
• Mike Tomlin is 45-23-2 ATS as an underdog in the regular season
• Joe Burrow is 6-3 ATS in divisional games

PHI (-3.5) @ DET

• Eagles smacked the Lions 44-6 last season in Detroit
• Lions were 6-2 ATS at home last season…One of those two losses against the spread came against the Eagles.
• Philly has struggled to cover out of the gate recently. Over the last five seasons, the Eagles are 4-13 ATS in the month of September

IND (-8) @ HOU

• Since 2005, the Colts are 4-12-1 ATS in Week 1…They haven’t covered in an opening game since the 2014 season (0-6-1 ATS since)
• The Colts are 0-4 straight up in Week 1 during the Frank Reich era
• Frank Reich is 6-2 ATS & SU vs. the Texans in his career
• Lovie Smith’s return to the NFL. His first game as a NFL head coach since January 3rd, 2016.

NO (-5.5) @ ATL

• Dennis Allen’s first game as a NFL head coach since September 28th, 2014
• Marcus Mariota is set to make his first NFL start since October 13th, 2019
• As an underdog of 5+ points, Mariota is 7-3 ATS
• New Orleans is 3-8 ATS and 4-7 SU in Week 1 games since 2011
• Atlanta went defeated ATS at home last season (0-7 ATS)

BAL (-7) @ NYJ

• John Harbaugh is 10-4 ATS in Week 1
• With 10+ days off, Harbaugh is 22-8 straight up (17-11-2 ATS)
• NYJ is 1-5 against the spread and straight up in their last six Week 1 games
• The Jets haven’t won a September game since Sam Darnold’s NFL debut on September 10th, 2018
• Since the beginning of 2018, they’re 2-11 ATS & 1-12 SU in the month of September

NE (+2.5) @ MIA

• New England has struggled to cover in Miami recently as they are just 2-7-1 ATS and 3-7 SU there in the last ten years
• First time since December 15, 2013 that the Dolphins are favored against the Patriots
• Mike McDaniel’s makes his NFL head coaching debut
• This is the third year in a row that the Patriots and Dolphins matchup to start the season

CLE (+1.5) @ CAR

• The Browns have not won a week 1 road game since 1994, when Bill Belichick was their head coach
• Baker Mayfield revenge game. Makes his first start as a Panther and it comes against his former team. QBs facing their old team last season went 2-0 ATS…(NOTE: Doesn’t include LAR-DET matchup)
• Jacoby Brissett will be starting for the Browns. 19-16-2 ATS in his career. Started 5 games last season: 3-2 ATS, 2-3 SU
• Matt Rhule as a favorite: 3-8 ATS. Has not covered 5 straight games as a favorite and has lost all five of those games outright

SF (-6.5) @ CHI

• Matt Eberflus makes his NFL head coaching debut
• Kyle Shanahan has struggled to cover as a favorite, 14-24-1 ATS...5-11-1 ATS as a favorite of 6+ points
• Trey Lance will be making his 3rd career NFL start (1-1 ATS)
• Justin Fields finished 30th among 31 QBs in EPA per drop back last season.       7 TD, 10 INT, 3-7 ATS, 2-8 SU as a rookie.
• Since 2019, Chicago is 2-10 ATS as a dog of 6+ points

LV (+3.5) @ LAC

• Josh McDaniels makes his long awaited head coaching return. His first game as a NFL head coach since December 5th, 2010. (13-15 career ATS)
• Revenge game for the Chargers…Raiders beat Chargers 35-32 in overtime in Week 18 last season, which sent the Raiders to the playoffs and Chargers home.

NYG (+5.5) @ TEN

• As favorites of 5+ points in the Mike Vrabel era, the Titans are just 6-9 ATS. Vrabel excels as an underdog, not a favorite
• Daniel Jones is 12-6 ATS on the road compared to 7-12 ATS at home
• Brian Daboll makes his NFL head coaching debut
• Titans were 6-3 ATS at home last season
• NYG allowed 130 rushing yards per game last season (8th worst in the NFL), were the 6th worst run defense according to Pro Football Focus...Titans RB Derrick Henry returns from a foot injury for the first game since Halloween last year

KC (-4) @ ARI

• Chiefs are 19-11 ATS and 23-7 straight up in the month of September under Andy Reid. 6-3 ATS, 8-1 SU in Week 1 under Reid
• Patrick Mahomes in September: 41 TD, 3 INT, 8-5 ATS, 11-2 SU
• Cardinals are 3-0 ATS in Week 1 under Kliff Kingsbury and 5-1 ATS in first two games of the season
• Arizona was just 2-6 ATS at home last season

JAX (+4) @ WAS

• Since 2005, road underdogs who failed to make the playoffs the previous season are 73-46-4 ATS in Week 1.
• Carson Wentz was 0-2 against the spread vs. JAX last season. Wentz lost outright to JAX as a 16-point favorite in Week 18 last season

GB (-2.5) @ MIN

• Aaron Rodgers vs. Vikings: 56 TD, 7 INT, 15-11 ATS, 16-10 SU
• Since becoming a head coach in 2019, Matt LaFleur is 32-17 ATS, the most profitable coach against the spread
• Kevin O’Connell makes his NFL head coaching debut

TB (-1.5) @ DAL

• Dallas Cowboys were a NFL best 13-4 ATS last season
• Tom Brady is 1-10 ATS in his last 11 road primetime starts
• Dak Prescott is 17-9-1 ATS in primetime games and 10-4 ATS in home primetime games
• Todd Bowles first game as head coach since 12/30/2018. 30-33 ATS in his head coaching career

DEN (-5.5) @ SEA

• Russell Wilson makes his first start as a member of the Denver Broncos and it comes on the road against his former team on MNF!
• Russell Wilson is 2-8 ATS in his last 10 primetime games and has lost four straight outright. Wilson is 23-15-3 ATS in primetime in his career
• Seahawks starting QB Geno Smith is 6-1 ATS as a starter in primetime games
• Underdogs on MNF in Week 1 are 20-11 ATS since 2005